This post was updated January 19th and these predictions are FINAL.
The Predicted Nominees (for now)
Look for Oscar to match up five-for-five with the SAG nominees this year (which hasn’t happened since 2011). The race has really come to a stop already. Viola Davis is your likely winner. She’s just having her moment. She’s campaigning perfectly, the work is worthy, and everyone loves her right now. It’d be a shocker if anyone else won. Elsewhere, there were some early concerns that a lack of screentime could hold Michelle Williams back, but that hasn’t been an issue thus far with the guilds. The lovely Naomie Harris appears set for her first Oscar nom thanks to her transformative work in Moonlight.
1) Viola Davis (Fences)
2) Nicole Kidman (Lion)
3) Naomie Harris (Moonlight)
4) Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)
5) Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures)
On The Bubble
If there’s one person who can really surprise on Oscar morning here, it’s Greta Gerwig. Critics really like her and her film but it’s just came and went with the guilds. There’s a chance it doesn’t receive a single nomination.
6) Greta Gerwig (20th Century Women)
7) Molly Shannon (Other People)