This post was updated January 19th and these predictions are FINAL.
The Predicted Nominees
Aaron Taylor-Johnson WINNING the Globe here was a true shocker, and says there’s more overall love for Nocturnal Animals than most thought. I still don’t think he gets in here. In fact, I have this category lining up for SAG five-for-five (which feels risky after only 2 SAG nominees were also named by Oscar last year, but, whatever).
Mahershala Ali is still the frontrunner for Moonlight. He’s picked up countless prizes and if he wins SAG I’d feel comfortable calling him a lock. But maybe the Academy awards an older veteran? Hugh Grant will be nominated for Florence Foster Jenkins, as will Jeff Bridges for Hell or High Water. Bridges probably has the better chance, because he’s Jeff Bridges, but both have a lot more screentime than Ali, who’s only in his film’s first act (I don’t think it’ll matter, but it’s worth considering). Dev Patel seems safe for Lion, and I’m going with Lucas Hedges for the fifth spot. He’s young, but SAG went for him and Manchester by the Sea features maybe the year’s best collection of acting.
1) Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
2) Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water)
3) Hugh Grant (Florence Foster Jenkins)
4) Dev Patel (Lion)
5) Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea)
On The Bubble
Perhaps one of the Nocturnal Animals boys really will get in. Wouldn’t it be something if Michael Shannon was the one cited here despite Aaron Taylor-Johnson winning the Globe? Shannon is a more respected actor and gives the better performance, for my money. Also to consider are Ben Foster and Kevin Costner. Bridges is getting in; do they love Hell or High Water enough to give it two nominations here? Costner is quite good in the popular Hidden Figures. It’s nothing major, but it’s a fun turn that could be swept in if the Academy goes heavy on the film.
6) Aaron Taylor-Johnson (Nocturnal Animals)
7) Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals)
8) Ben Foster (Hell or High Water)
9) Kevin Costner (Hidden Figures)
10) Issey Ogata (Silence)