This post was updated January 22nd and these prediction are FINAL
The Predicted Nominees
SAG usually lines up with Oscar here for at least 3 noms. I think it’ll be 4 this year. Denzel Washington and Casey Affleck are the top dogs. Affleck has been winning everything so far but Fences was a late bloomer non-concerned with early season critics awards. It’s going to much a closer race for the win than people thinking. Affleck is NOT a runaway. Ryan Gosling is a lock due to La La Land love despite it not even being his best work this year. Andrew Garfield picked up SAG along with many other notices for Hacksaw Ridge. He seems safe, but younger actors who seem safe often get left out on Oscar morning. I hope he gets in, he’s overdue. My wildcard is Tom Hanks. He hasn’t gotten a ton of love, but I have a hunch Sully is playing much stronger to the Academy than we think. He’s obviously a legend and a very popular name in the branch. I think he surprises.
1) Denzel Washington (Fences)
2) Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)
3) Ryan Gosling (La La Land)
4) Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge)
5) Tom Hanks (Sully)
On The Bubble
Viggo Mortensen got the SAG nom he desperately needed to stay in the race for the small Captain Fantastic. Oscar has gone for him before and you could easily swap him with Garfield or Hanks in my top 5. The others in this group are long shots.
6) Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic)
7) Joel Edgerton (Loving)
8) Jake Gyllenhaal (Nocturnal Animals)
9) Michael Keaton (The Founder)
10) Adam Driver (Paterson)