this posted was updated January 11th (FINAL PREDICTIONS)
Below you’ll find my FINAL 2016 Oscar predictions for the writers.
Best Original Screenplay
This category seems tailor-made for Spotlight this year, though names like Trantino and Coen being in play makes it at least a little interesting. Could the Academy shake things up a bit and go with someone like Amy Schumer for a nom? There’s certainly a chance…
My FINAL Predicted Nominees…
1. Tom McCarthy & Josh Singer (Spotlight)
A true writing achievement. Meticulously researched, briskly put together. BP frontrunner. A place to cite McCarthy since he’s not going to win in Director.
2. Quentin Tarantino (The Hateful Eight)
Tarantino is always a good bet here and precursors/critics haven’t done anything to suggest otherwise. I wonder if he can win though for a film many don’t love.
3. Bob Petersen and Pete Docter (Inside Out)
This concept needs to be cited, and this is a spot to nominate the makers of a film many think is the year’s best.
4. Matt Charman & The Coen Bros (Bridge of Spies)
As its BP chances grow, so do its chances here. The Coen Bros re-working adds some name recognition. It is quite a good script.
5. Alex Garland (Ex Machina)
Ex Machina is coming on strong and it’s a much more carefully written movie than you expect out of sci-fi. Garland also directed.
RIGHT on the Bubble…
6. Various Writers (Straight Outta Compton)
With so many writers attached, it feels like another studio movie that was re-written four times. But with it likely getting in BP, it’s in play here.
7. Amy Schumer (Trainwreck)
Some places have gone for Schumer. But this really is a mold-breaking possibility, not sure the Academy is ready to embrace this type of work yet.
8. Taylor Sheridan (Sicario)
Sicario is getting some late love. The script isn’t showy but is certainly good. Probably needs the film to get a BP nom.
9. David O’Russell & Annie Mumolo (Joy)
Academy folks love David O’Russell and I have an inkling they love Joy a little more than critics do.
10. Paolo Sorrentino (Youth)
Academy likes Sorrentino and the old folks will go for this story. I just wish Youth had more momentum overall.
Best Adapted Screenplay
While The Big Short may appear to be pulling away you can never count out Aaron Sorkin, Nick Hornby, or Charlie Kaufman.
My FINAL Predicted Nominees…
1. Adam McKay & Charles Randolph (The Big Short)
Coming on strong and Adam McKay is being campaigned hard. He does deserve credit for blending vulgar comedy with factual material.
2. Nick Hornby (Brooklyn)
Hornby is a titan and Brooklyn looks like a BP nominee. Seen as a writing achievement more than a directorial one; which always helps here.
3. Aaron Sorkin (Steve Jobs)
Sorkin is divisive but his latest has appeared throughout precursors (won Globe even). There’s room for him again.
4. Charlie Kaufman (Anomalisa)
Kaufman is obviously a prominent writer. Adapted his own work. It’s really a great script. But is the film viewed as highly as it should be?
5. Drew Goddard (The Martian)
Has popped up a few places. BP player. Goddard is popular and the script really is funny.
RIGHT on the bubble…
6. Phyllis Nagy (Carol)
Needs a BP nom, I think. Many of the films best moments are just gazes; does that hurt Nagy’s chances here?
7. Emma Donahue (Room)
Adapting her own novel. If Room is a bigger player than I think, it’s probably in here.
8. John McNamara (Trumbo)
A late surge for the film and it’s a screenwriter writing about a screenwriter. Is that enough to overcome the bad reviews?
9. Andrew Haigh (45 Years)
Some calling it the best of the year. Folks love Andrew Haigh. But is it too small?
10. Alejandro G. Inarritu & Mark L. Smith (The Revenant)
Hell, it might win BP. But most critiques of the film come back to the script. This is a film about imagery first and foremost.